Something I just ranted on a school parents' WhatsApp group. You might find it useful.
Here are some graphs I made based on Statistics from WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb 28. "Death Rate" represents the patient's risk of dying, if infected.
Mortality, if infected, for children under 10, is 0%. 11-20, 0.2%. Under 50, 0.2~0.4%. Mortality, if you do not have a pre existing disease, is <1%. There is pretty much no risk to children here.
Also note that most people dying of COVID-19 have been long term smokers or other folks with untreated lung disorders. If your lungs are fine, you'll be fine.
These mortality rates are about the same as for common flu and malaria. So basically, if a child is unfortunate enough to catch any infectious disease (malaria, flu), there is always a 0.2% chance they will die from it. This 0.2% rate is for the overall population. Since middle class children are well fed, treated in the best hospitals, etc., their mortality rate will be a lot lower than 0.2%. Same will be the case for COVID-19. All you need to ensure is that your child's BMI is in the normal range.
Now let me tell you what the real fear is. Your child goes to school, contracts COVID. She is sick for a few days, recovers just fine. But she has brought the disease home and passed it on to your parents. Those guys are above 70 years of age, mortality rates are 10%+ for them. Add to that the complication of pre existing diseases. Or maybe your father was a lifelong smoker. Boom. Trouble.
Your child isn't going to die of COVID. They're going to be vectors and spread it to vulnerable senior citizens. Basically, start at 10% mortality risk, and keep adding 5% for every ten years age over 70. Also add 10% for every pre-existing condition such as heart disease, BP, diabetes, etc. So if your 80 year old father has a heart condition and diabetes, that's 10+5+10+10 = 35% mortality risk if infected.
Now, your kids go to a very sanitised school. Their risk of contracting an infection at HXLS is very low.
Your parents are exposed to a wide variety of people at home. Most of them are poor.
Gurgaon does not have any public health infrastructure to speak of. When your kids get to grade 7, and they might do an expedition called "Be the Change". They will learn that there are no functioning dispensaries and hospitals - nothing in Gurgaon where the poor can get treated. And private hospitals are too expensive. So the poor go to RMPs for treatment. RMP's aren't even real doctors.
So, what happens? At school, 100% of the staff and students are constantly being checked. But are you checking your maids and drivers? What about at their home - will they report to you if someone at their home is sick? Most likely they will keep showing up sick at your home, because they are daily wagers and you cut their pay for the days when they take sick leaves.
There are ways to mitigate this. At my work place, we have medical insurance for everybody - from the white collar workers down to the office cleaner. The medical insurance extends to all people who reside with them - not just their financial dependents. Also, all OPD for all workers is covered by the company - consultation, medicine, tests, referrals to doctors - everything that our empanelled doctors recommend, we pay for. We have had this policy for some time now and we try and act on it as much as possible.
So if you want to save your parents from COVID, get interested in the health of everybody who enters your house. The security guards, garbage collector, the guy who sweeps the common areas in your neighbourhood. These people are living cheek by jowl in slums. COVID will spread like fire in those slums, and they will bring the disease to your parents. And just telling them to not show up for work if they are sick, won't help. They will simply under-report illness. You will need to pay them for sick leaves, you will need to pay to get them and their families treated.
[ Coronavirus is doing to be the great leveller of India society, I hope ]
Here are some graphs I made based on Statistics from WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb 28. "Death Rate" represents the patient's risk of dying, if infected.
Mortality, if infected, for children under 10, is 0%. 11-20, 0.2%. Under 50, 0.2~0.4%. Mortality, if you do not have a pre existing disease, is <1%. There is pretty much no risk to children here.
Also note that most people dying of COVID-19 have been long term smokers or other folks with untreated lung disorders. If your lungs are fine, you'll be fine.
These mortality rates are about the same as for common flu and malaria. So basically, if a child is unfortunate enough to catch any infectious disease (malaria, flu), there is always a 0.2% chance they will die from it. This 0.2% rate is for the overall population. Since middle class children are well fed, treated in the best hospitals, etc., their mortality rate will be a lot lower than 0.2%. Same will be the case for COVID-19. All you need to ensure is that your child's BMI is in the normal range.
Now let me tell you what the real fear is. Your child goes to school, contracts COVID. She is sick for a few days, recovers just fine. But she has brought the disease home and passed it on to your parents. Those guys are above 70 years of age, mortality rates are 10%+ for them. Add to that the complication of pre existing diseases. Or maybe your father was a lifelong smoker. Boom. Trouble.
Your child isn't going to die of COVID. They're going to be vectors and spread it to vulnerable senior citizens. Basically, start at 10% mortality risk, and keep adding 5% for every ten years age over 70. Also add 10% for every pre-existing condition such as heart disease, BP, diabetes, etc. So if your 80 year old father has a heart condition and diabetes, that's 10+5+10+10 = 35% mortality risk if infected.
Now, your kids go to a very sanitised school. Their risk of contracting an infection at HXLS is very low.
Your parents are exposed to a wide variety of people at home. Most of them are poor.
Gurgaon does not have any public health infrastructure to speak of. When your kids get to grade 7, and they might do an expedition called "Be the Change". They will learn that there are no functioning dispensaries and hospitals - nothing in Gurgaon where the poor can get treated. And private hospitals are too expensive. So the poor go to RMPs for treatment. RMP's aren't even real doctors.
So, what happens? At school, 100% of the staff and students are constantly being checked. But are you checking your maids and drivers? What about at their home - will they report to you if someone at their home is sick? Most likely they will keep showing up sick at your home, because they are daily wagers and you cut their pay for the days when they take sick leaves.
There are ways to mitigate this. At my work place, we have medical insurance for everybody - from the white collar workers down to the office cleaner. The medical insurance extends to all people who reside with them - not just their financial dependents. Also, all OPD for all workers is covered by the company - consultation, medicine, tests, referrals to doctors - everything that our empanelled doctors recommend, we pay for. We have had this policy for some time now and we try and act on it as much as possible.
So if you want to save your parents from COVID, get interested in the health of everybody who enters your house. The security guards, garbage collector, the guy who sweeps the common areas in your neighbourhood. These people are living cheek by jowl in slums. COVID will spread like fire in those slums, and they will bring the disease to your parents. And just telling them to not show up for work if they are sick, won't help. They will simply under-report illness. You will need to pay them for sick leaves, you will need to pay to get them and their families treated.
[ Coronavirus is doing to be the great leveller of India society, I hope ]