Had a one-minute chat with a chaat vendor at India Gate last week. The hafta that policemen demand from vendors at India Gate is Rs. 100 a day, Rs. 200 on Fridays and Saturdays. I asked the guy if AAP would come back to power this time too. He gave me this incredulous look and said, "Just now I told you the hafta rate, didn't I? That much every poor person will save every day. Then how will AAP not come back to power?" He later confirmed that there was absolutely no hafta paid during the 49 day AAP rule.

So according to my one-person survey, AAP has a 100% chance of winning Delhi :p